The country hosting COP28 climate talks aimed at cutting fossil fuel emissions is massively ramping up its own oil production, the BBC has learned.

The United Arab Emirates’ state oil firm Adnoc may drill 42% more by 2030, according to analysts considered the international gold standard in oil market intelligence.

Between 2023 and 2050, only Saudi Arabia is expected to produce more.

Adnoc says projections show capacity to produce oil, not actual production.

It said it had already clearly stated plans to boost its production capacity by 7% over the next four years.

The firm said it was widely accepted that some oil and gas would be needed in decades ahead and that it was making its activities more climate-friendly, including by expanding into renewable energy.

The major focus of COP28 is the phasing down or phasing out of fossil fuels including oil and gas.

Sultan al-Jaber is the president of the COP and the chief executive of Adnoc.

This new analysis of oil industry data suggests Adnoc is now in the process of rapid expansion.

The information on Adnoc comes from Rystad Energy, whose oil market intelligence is widely used and trusted by fossil fuel companies and international bodies such as the International Energy Agency.

Rystad uses company reports, government sources and academic research to make projections of future oil and gas production.

Campaigners Global Witness then used this data to make a list of top oil producers between now and 2050.

The UAE came second behind Saudi Arabia. It currently ranks 12th in the world.

Rystad said the 42% production increase this decade will raise output from just over a billion barrels in 2023 to almost 1.5 billion barrels by 2030.

The data suggests that this aggressive expansion is expected to continue through the 2030s, with production starting to decline in the 2040s.

By 2050 Adnoc is expected to be producing close to 850 million barrels of oil a year, significantly less than the billion it produces now.

Production is expected to fall across the world towards the mid-century.

Bill Hare, a senior scientist with Climate Analytics, said the “staggering” growth in Adnoc’s projected production “is completely against everything we know that needs to be done to limit warming to 1.5C”.

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